Retail Risk and Reward: Cannabis Investing in Florida
Florida is often described as a “limited-license” cannabis market with unusually strong local control. For investors looking at retail cannabis—whether storefronts, delivery hubs, real estate, or ancillary services—the biggest friction point is the patchwork of opt-out towns and local zoning that can shut down (or sharply constrain) where retail locations can exist.
1) “Opt-out” is real—and it’s specifically about dispensing facilities
Under Florida’s medical cannabis statute, a county or municipality may, by ordinance, ban medical marijuana treatment center (MMTC) dispensing facilities from being located within its boundaries. That means the addressable retail footprint isn’t just “Florida demand,” it’s “Florida demand that can be served with compliant locations in permissive jurisdictions.”
For investors, this is a practical underwriting issue:
- A town that opts out can eliminate a prime retail corridor overnight (or prevent it from ever being developed).
- Adjacent towns can become “magnet markets,” concentrating traffic, pricing power, and competition in a smaller set of allowed locations.
2) Local zoning can matter as much as the opt-out vote
Even where a town does not ban facilities, local government can set location criteria and permitting rules so long as they don’t conflict with state law. Investors should treat zoning as a diligence item, not a footnote—especially buffers near schools. State law includes a 500-foot school setback (with a pathway for local approval through a public proceeding).
Translation for deal models: the “number of viable parcels” may be far smaller than the “number of parcels on a map.”
Read more on local ordinances here.
3) Delivery can soften opt-out risk but doesn’t erase it
Florida’s system supports dispensing to patients via storefronts and via delivery from approved MMTCs, which can help reach patients who live in opt-out towns. However, delivery economics (routing density, labor, compliance controls, and customer acquisition costs) rarely match the unit economics of a strong storefront—so investors should model delivery as a market-access tool, not a full substitute for retail location value.
4) The retail market is vertically integrated—competition looks different
Florida MMTCs are vertically integrated: they are the entities authorized to cultivate, process, and dispense medical cannabis. For investors, that changes what “retail” means:
- A retail store is often a branded extension of a vertically integrated operator, not an independent dispensary buying wholesale.
- M&A and growth strategies often hinge on license position, scale, and the ability to place stores in the limited set of non-opt-out jurisdictions.
5) Community and political risk is not theoretical
Opt-out and “no more dispensaries” decisions can be politically volatile. Recent local reporting shows counties can revisit or reverse decisions about allowing new dispensaries, underscoring that the local environment can shift quickly. Investors should assess:
- public sentiment and enforcement posture,
- upcoming municipal elections,
- and whether local leaders treat cannabis as routine commerce or a special case.
6) Don’t underwrite adult-use retail as “imminent”
Florida voters backed adult-use legalization in 2024 by a majority, but it fell short of the 60% threshold required to pass. A new legalization push is being discussed for 2026, but it’s still a process with legal and signature hurdles. Investors should stress-test projections so the deal works under today’s medical-only rules, with upside treated as optionality—not the base case.
Bottom line: In Florida, “opt-out towns” don’t just shape retail—they shape real estate value, store density, delivery strategy, and the competitive map. The winners are typically the operators (and landlords/ancillaries tied to them) that can secure compliant locations in permissive jurisdictions and defend those positions over time.